NEW SMYRNA BEACH -- Mayor Sally Mackay is keeping her fingers crossed that flooding will be kept to a minimum and that the beach holds up as Tropical Storm Fay lumbers this way, about 15 miles south of New Smyrna Beach as it makes its expected northwest path to the Florida Panhandle.
Throughout the day steady bands of rain have pounded Central Florida, dumping at least 3 to 5 inches of rain locally, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne, based in part on measurements taken at the New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, though far less than the 20 inches that have overwhelmed Brevard County.
Though as many as 800 homes throughout Volusia County are without power, there have been no such outages here in Southeast Volusia. Volusia County officials also report beach erosion is a major problem, especially in the Daytona Beach area, but less so here, though 25 percent of the summer's sand replenishment program for the beach in New Smyrna Beach is lost.
Still the mayor was trying to look on the bright side with all of the rain, saying "We need to replenish our aquifer." And she had a word of caution for residents regarding Fay's relative calm, but potential for danger: "Be safe and take it seriously. This storm is not done yet. Stay alert.
Stay at home and stay safe."
Here is the latest Fay update (as written by the National Weather Service):
Coastal Volusia County
Hurricane Bulletin, Flood Watch
Hurricane Bulletin:
Issued at: 9:20 PM EDT 8/20/08, expires at: 9:30 PM EDT 8/21/08
Tropical storm warning remains in effect. Extreme flooding continues for brevard county.Growing heavy rain threat for volusia county.Another landfall for fay forecast overnight.
New information. The flood threat for brevard county remains extreme. Additional heavy rain is still possible for the remainder of this evening and overnight for brevard county, especially for north brevard. Heavy rain will also become a concern for coastal volusia county as rainbands wrap around to the west of fays center.
Areas affected. this statement recommends actions to be taken by persons in the following coastal counties, St. Lucie, Indian River, Brevard and Volusia counties.
Inland flooding. at 830 pm edt, national weather service doppler radar showed rainbands with heavy rain continuing to rotate around the southwest side of the center of tropical storm fay and into northern brevard county. There remains the potential for this band to expand or extend farther southward into southern Brevard county, where widespread flooding and standing water problems will continue overnight, even in absence of additional rainfall.
The brevard county flooding event is no doubt historic for the area. This much rain has not occurred locally since hurricane erin in 1995, which impacted many of the same locations. During Erin, totals were locally 9 to 12 inches. The rain with fay has already doubled that of Erin! More so, the average monthly rain total for Melbourne is 5.78 inches. During this event alone, at the national weather service office, rain totals have reached 17.63 inches so far, and it continues to rain. Even more astonishing, in parts of north Melbourne, nearly 25 inches have been reported, and again, it continues to rain.
Rainfall amounts may reach as much as 30 inches for local event totals, with another 4 to 8 inches expected.
There are many road closures within Brevard County around Melbourne, Palm Bay, Satellite Beach, and Cocoa. Do not go out onto the roadways as drainage ditches and retention ponds are overflowing in brevard and Indian river counties. The roads are difficult to see and it is very dangerous to drive. Do not drive across places where water of unknown depth covers the road, especially at night, as they may be washed out!
Additional road closures are very likely. Problems with sewer backups may occur, and contaminating standing water. Also, check with local officials for possible water boil alerts in your area. As imposed, adhere to city curfews.
Also, wildlife will also seek higher ground. Alligators and water snakes will also have unusual access to neighborhoods and communities. Be careful!
Additional road closures are very likely. Problems with sewer backups may occur, and contaminating standing water. Also, check with local officials for possible water boil alerts in your area.
For coastal Volusia County, heavy rain will move onshore from New Smyrna Beach to Ormond Beach, and translate inland. As a result, totals of 4 to 8 inches may occur overnight in parts of Volusia County.
On the St. Johns River between Lake Harney and Astor, there is currently no significant flooding. The latest stage heights at Lake Harney, Sanford, Deland, and Astor are all below river flood stage. Rain totals along the saint johns river will increase north of lake harney later this evening and overnight. As of this morning, the stage at Astor is expected to reach 2.5 feet by late Friday above the action stage of 2.3 feet, but below flood stage of 2.8 feet. Area interests should watch for possible longer term river flooding at astor over the coming days. Listen for possible river flood warnings if continued heavy rain materializes within the basin.
Winds. tropical storm force winds, mainly in gusts, will continue through tonight. The strongest winds will occur near the center of fay, along the coast of northern Brevard and Volusia counties. Wind gusts between 45 and 60 mph will be possible through tonight and early Thursday. Further to the south across indian river and St. Lucie counties, winds will be somewhat lower but still gusting to tropical storm strength of 45 mph through tonight in squalls. Conditions should improve south of brevard county by thursday, but not until Thursday night from brevard northward. North winds along the Volusia coast tonight will gradually back to the southwest by Thursday morning. Winds will remain offshore, out of the west or southwest, from brevard county southward.
There is still a degree of uncertainty as to the exact track of Fay. However, significant additional intensification of fay appears unlikely as it tracks very close to the coast this evening and makes a second Florida landfall near the upper Volusia coast overnight. Nonetheless, Fay has strengthened and organized a little over the past few hours. Residents should continue to monitor the progress of fay closely.
Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible from Daytona Beach northward moving onshore. Listen for possible tornado warnings. If a tornado does occur, it should be brief and short lived.
Storm surge and storm tide. high surf and very dangerous rip currents will continue tonight and Thursday, north of the cape. Storm tide waters may run 2 to 3 foot above normal around midnight and again between 11 am and noon on Thursday, especially during periods of high tide. Storm surge concerns will be highest along the northern volusia coast, where continued onshore winds are creating long duration pounding surf. Beach erosion will be a concern.
The effects of of storm tide waters will be minimal south of cape canaveral for the remainder of the event associated with tropical storm fay.
Next update. the next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne around midnight edt, or sooner if conditions warrant.
For a graphical version of this hurricane local statement, see the Melbourne National Weather Service Web site at weather.gov and then click on East Central Florida.
Flood Watch:
Issued at: 7:57 PM EDT 8/20/08, expires at: 8:00 AM EDT 8/21/08
Flood Watch Remains in effect through Thursday morning,
The flood watch continues for
East central Florida, Including The Following areas, Coastal Volusia, Indian River, Inland Volusia, Martin, Northern Brevard, Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Southern Brevard, Southern Lake And St. Lucie.
Through Thursday morning, the heaviest rainfall from Fay is expected to fall immediately to the south and west of the large 50 mile diameter wide center of fay Across Volusia And Brevard counties. Additional rainfall amounts Of three to six inches will be common in this areas, With Locally higher amounts possible.
While there has been a lull this evening across rain saturated Southern Brevard county, there Is The potential for a band of heavy rainfall to redevelop across this area overnight.
Elsewhere in the watch area, Expect Generally Two inches or less of Additional rainfall, With The Highest amounts in areas adjacent to volusia and brevard counties.
The watch is likely to be extended through Thursday for most of east central Florida.
Some rainfall totals from fay thus far,
Melbourne (windover farms - north), 24.80 inches as of 1:50 pm. Sebastian, 18.50 inches as of 3 pm. Viera, 18.42 inches as of 2 pm. Melbourne (national weather service), 17.74 inches as of 7:00 pm. Stuart, 13.89 inches as of 3:00 pm. Melbourne airport, 13.81 as of 7pm. Fort pierce (saint lucie airport), 11.42 inches as of 7:00 pm. Vero beach airport, 10.00 inches as of 7:00 pm.
A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on the current forecast of a slow movement north of west for Tropical Storm Fay.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for additional flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take quick action should additional flooding develop.
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